Ten years after the UK embarked on a rushed referendum that divided the country and unleashed turmoil, a caution is issued from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and citizens drifted into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating convulsions for which nobody is prepared.
That represents the warning from two respected journalists from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a possibly fraught and seismic referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gain traction swiftly," O’Toole said. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains very unstable."
Released Volume Aims to Stir Debate
The duo have studied the political, financial and societal rationales for any constitutional change in a book, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the topic with a tour of lectures that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts all parties, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose implications have not been clarified because then you end up with an highly divided society where the losing side are unable to accept losing and the victorious side are uncertain quite what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim that moment is looming, and a group named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists minimise the prospect, leaving it unclear when or if there will be a referendum.
Lack of Serious Debate
Political rhetoric for and against unification has hidden the shortage of substantive discussion, noted McBride.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the notion but the actual thinking which may surpass that to achieve it has largely not occurred. Much has gone on in universities but hardly any politicians or activists seek to involve themselves with the basics. For instance, what sort of state might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the book, neither author supports unity or the current situation. Each composes two essays that seek objectivity in laying out the case for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, marshalling financial and societal figures, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Debates range over identity markers, taxes, healthcare systems, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of unionist unrest. The objective is to educate and encourage discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there is still lacking a debate," commented O’Toole. "Dialogue implies an recognition of the notion that there might be reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where voters report they prefer unity but reject increased taxation or implementing a alternative symbol to reflect unionists' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland should establish what the offer from nationalist groups is other than just declaring: 'We want a unified Ireland and we value you'," said O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a referendum in his generation is possible and that it could happen suddenly. "You could have just a mad or a ill-advised or a incompetent government minister who states: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, valid points, he commented. "One side will succeed here and somebody will eventually not succeed but all factions has possesses important lessons to learn from the other's viewpoints."
Appeal for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster must join the dialogue, said the analyst. "This is about your state. It's a British issue equally as it is an Irish issue."
